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THE incidence OF AUTISTIC SPECTRUM DISORDERS: HAVE THEY RISEN?

Much has been said recently, both in the scientific literature and in the popular press, about whether or not there has been an increase in the incidence of autism. It is important to remember two things when considering the evidence for or against this claim: first, governments do not routinely collect data on autism, and second, there is no laboratory, genetic, or neurological test for autism. All diagnoses of autism rely on subjective measures (e.g. opinions or rating systems of behaviors). Different academic backgrounds or degrees of clinical or personal experience often result in children receiving different diagnoses from different professionals. 

Complicating this problem further is the explosion of information from the neurosciences over the last decade about how brains interpret sensory information, learn, and develop.  Never before have we been able to not only understand how abnormal sensory experiences affect the developing brain, learning, behavior and language.  Professional who are inexperienced or uninformed about these advances may give a diagnosis of "autism," "attention deficit" or "psychosis" to children whose behaviors or deficits are caused by an auditory or vestibular processing disorder. 

While it is true that several standardized measures exist to aid professionals in the diagnoses of autism, there is no universally accepted measure and all of the measures depend upon subjective judgments of how "abnormal" a particular behavior is considered.  To complicate matters further, these measures are based upon definitions and criteria and ideas that were proposed over 60 years ago by Kanner and Asperger, well before scientists knew much about either the developing brain or sensory processing problems.  Finally, the measures used to determine the presence or absence of autism vary between countries as well as between researchers within a single city.

Because of these difficulties, the reader should regard the following statistics with a certain level of healthy skepticism. They are only a broad and rough estimate of the incidence of autism; rates between areas will vary naturally due to differences in assessment measures, techniques, cultural attitudes, and the professional skills of the individuals who gave the diagnoses in each study.

STUDIES ON THE PREVALENCE OF AUTISTIC SPECTRUM DISORDERS

(to read the abstracts of the studies below click here)

Authors

Location Studied

Dates of Data

Who Was Reviewed

Incidence of Autism Only

Incidence of All ASD

Baird et al

South Thames, UK

2006

all 9-10 year olds

3.9 out of 1000

7.7 out of 1000

Bertrand et al

Brick Township, NJ, US

1998

3-10 year olds with an ASD diagnosis

4 out of 1000

6.7 out of 1000

Yeargin-Allsopp et al

Atlanta Metropolitan Area, US

1996 and 2000

3-10  year olds in Atlanta with an ASD diagnosis

3.4 out of 1000

 Not available

Lauritsen et al

Denmark

1971-2000

All children under 10 years on the Psychiatric Register

.2 out of 1000

Range: .07 to .3 out of 1000

Smeeth et al

UK

1988-2001

Individuals with an ASD diagnosis registered with a practice reporting to the General Practice Database

.4 to 2.98 per 10,000 "person-years"

0 to 1.06 per 10,000 "person-years"

Williams et al

NSW and WA, Australia

1999-2000

all children 0-14 with an ASD diagnosis

Not available

.4 to .5 out of 1000

Zhang and Ji

Tianjin, China

2005

7345 children with ASD or MR age 2-6 years

Not available

1.1 out of 1000

Ellefsen et al

Faroe Islands

2002

All school children aged 8-17 years

Not available

5.6 out of 1000

Gilberg et al

Goteborg, Sweden

2001

Entire population aged 6 to 24 years 

2 out of 1000

Range: .9 to 3.3 out of 1000

Fombonne et al Montreal, Canada 1987-1998 All children in 55 schools 2.2 out of 1000 Range: 1.1 to 6.5 out of 1000

U.S. Center for Disease Control

6 areas in the northeast U.S.

2000

8 year olds with an ASD diagnosis

range: 4.5 in 1000 to 9.9 in 1000 (average 6.7 in 1000)

Not available

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